STSM: Uncertainty in biodiversity impacts of high resolution land-use change projection

This summer, PhD candidate Michael Wögerer from the International Institute for Systems Analysis (IIASA) spent a month visiting the land-use modelling teams from the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) and the Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (PBL) to work on topics regarding inter-model comparison and regionally explicit impact analysis.

by Michael Wögerer

During his STSM, Michael worked with colleagues from PIK in Potsdam as well as PBL in The Hague to set the framework for integrated assessment model (IAM) comparison studies. The main focus was to identify common grounds between GLOBIOM, IMAGE and MagPIE to allow efficient intercomparison between these large scale IAMs. In the process mappings of geographic scales, time scales and variables were created.

As a major contribution, downscaling methods – allowing for spatially explicit results – were developed and compared with existing methods with the aim to integrate uncertainty into the regional projections. As a result, more reliable conclusions in impact analysis studies on biodiversity or climate change, could be drawn.

First efforts to compare IAM model results with spatially explicit land-use change projections in terms of their biodiversity impacts and potentially carbon off-set within a scientific paper were made during the STSM.

Konstantin would like to thank the teams from PIK and PBL as well as the PROCLIAS project to make this STSM possible.

If you are interested in doing an STSM, please find more information here.

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