WG 2: Impact attribution and uncertainty assessments

WG 2 brings together scientists working on detailed sectoral ensemble modelling dedicated to impact attribution and uncertainty assessment.

The focus of WG 2 is to support the improvement of methods to conduct and analyse multi-model simulation and attribution studies. It will foster the exchange of and the quality control of software and code developed to conduct climate impact assessments and deals with issues relevant to uncertainty assessment in ensemble modelling such as model averaging or model selection.

WG 2 also aims to foster the review and development of emerging climate attribution methods and techniques as well as synthesizing what evidence provided by science has actually been used in existing climate litigation cases. Therefore, potential topics for key TGs within WG 2 are ensemble impact modelling, uncertainty assessment, climate impact attribution and climate litigation.

The networking tools of COST in WG 2 will support researchers to get acquainted with the main impact modelling and model comparison techniques to foster the development of impact models and their contribution to impact model comparisons in countries where such efforts are currently underrepresented. Moreover, WG 2 will ensure common understanding of impact modellers with regard to displaying uncertainty measures.


Elvira de Eyto, Matthias Mengel