by Miodrag Stevanovic

The generation of land use patterns was done according to the scenarios defined in the ISIMIP 3b, group III protocol. The land use patterns were produced by applying the land use Model of Agricultural Production and its Impact on the Environment MAgPIE.

This project was done by the joint development of a common protocol for a generation of socio-economic forcing data for ISIMIP3b, group III simulations. The goal was to coordinate and put in accord the participating land use models with respect to common understanding and adjusting of models’ underlying assumptions and capabilities for producing integrated assessment of socio-economic developments, mitigation strategies and climate impacts on spatially explicit land use projections.  This was followed by the participation in drafting of the manuscript about the generation of the land use forcing data in ISIMIP3b, group III simulations. This included collecting inputs on participating land use models’ shared assumptions, and major differences in modeling paradigms of the land use sector. The modelers of impacts in other sectors, who uses the land use forcing data produced in ISIMIP3b, group III simulations interacted with each other. This activity encouraged an exchange in terms of not only formats or specification of the generated land use patterns, but also the necessity of detailed documentation of underlying assumptions in the land use models for an adequate use of land use patters for attribution of impacts in other sectors. The MAgPIE model is then improved for a better representation of land use dynamics on a spatial grid level. MAgPIE was applied across the protocoled scenarios and prepared the land use outputs in a given format for the further harmonization with the historical values.   

As a result of this, harmonized datasets of future land use patterns under an integrated assessment of socio-economic development, mitigation and adaptation strategies and climate impacts were formed. Common protocol with documentation of modeling assumptions and coordination on integrated assessment simulations of land use patterns by participating land use models, including the description and analysis of the resulting land use patterns was another achievement from this tool.

The link among land use modelers was further deepened under the common protocol of generating the land use forcing data for ISIMIP 3b, group III. There is a great opportunity now to foster links to the scientific community and modelers of other sectoral impacts due to this.

Without the support from the COST Action CA19139 PROCLIAS and the colleagues from PROCLIAS TG1.1, this project would not have realized its full potential.