A new fully funded PhD project on novel approaches to model uncertainty assessments
by Diaz Yanez Olalla
The Swiss Science National Foundation organises yearly calls for COST research projects in Switzerland associated with recently approved COST Actions. The leaders of the PROCLIAS Task Group 2.3 submitted a research project proposal on 2021 that was funded with CHF 231'264 for a four year fully funded PhD project with title: Unravelling the uncertainties of predictions of natural disturbances on landscape vegetation patterns.
The overall objective of this project is to assess the uncertainty linked to model predictions that arise due to the uncertainty in process formulations with a multi-model perspective. We are planning to use models of long-term forest landscape dynamics, focusing on natural disturbance predictions and climate impacts. The findings are expected to strongly enhance the robustness of projections of landscape-level models of forest dynamics in terms of being more structurally realistic. They will also help to identify alternative formulations for relevant ecological processes and elucidate the importance of key processes for long-term projections of forest dynamics. We are further expecting to provide an attribution of the impacts of recent climate change and robust projections of future climate impacts in relation to natural disturbances and forest dynamics as an important contribution to future landscape management.
This funded project involves several members and institutions from PROCLIAS and its objectives are very much in line with the general objectives of the TG 2.3. on Novel approaches to model uncertainty assessments, which include:
- looking at structural model uncertainties,
- finding systematic ways for accounting for uncertainties in socio-economic drivers in addition to climate and impact model uncertainties, and
- evaluating the sensitivity of dynamic forest models to the formulation of different ecological processes using a wide range of models from the PROCLIAS members.
The project will officially start on March 2022. If you want to know more about this project, please do not hesitate to contact the leaders of the TG 2.3. and PIs of this project Olalla Díaz-Yáñez or Harald Bugmann.