Task Group 2.3: Novel approaches to model uncertainty assessments

Objectives:

  • Look at structural model uncertainties, could be done by sector / closely related sectors, such as biomes, forests, hydrology
  • Find systematic ways for accounting for uncertainties in socio-economic drivers in addition to climate and impact model uncertainties
  • Evaluate the sensitivity of dynamic forest models to the formulation of regeneration processes using a wide range of models from the PROCLIAS members
  • Compare the simulated regeneration niche with the observed regeneration niche from a large database of natural forest dynamics
  • Assessment of structural model uncertainty in the simulation of another subject (e.g. carbon balance, C allocation) or focus on disturbances, etc.

Task Group Leader

Olalla Díaz-Yáñez & Harald Bugmann

Task Group Contributors

Jano Szolgay, Annikki Mäkelä, Masa Z. O. Sever, Katarina Merganicova, Mats Mahnken, Wojtek Szewczyk, Manfred J. Lexer, Mikko Peltoniemi, Jan Merganic, Shouro Dasgupta, Rafael Marcé, Alo Laas