Task Group 2.3: Novel approaches to model uncertainty assessments

Objectives:

  • Look at structural model uncertainties, could be done by sector / closely related sectors, such as biomes, forests, hydrology
  • Find systematic ways for accounting for uncertainties in socio-economic drivers in addition to climate and impact model uncertainties
  • Evaluate the sensitivity of dynamic forest models to the formulation of regeneration processes using a wide range of models from the PROCLIAS members
  • Compare the simulated regeneration niche with the observed regeneration niche from a large database of natural forest dynamics
  • Assessment of structural model uncertainty in the simulation of another subject (e.g. carbon balance, C allocation) or focus on disturbances, etc.

Task Group Leader

Olalla Díaz-Yáñez & Harald Bugmann

Output

Olalla Díaz-Yáñez et.al.: Tree Regeneration in Models of Forest Dynamics: A Key Priority for Further Research.