Task Group 3.5: Advancing socio-economic cross-sectoral climate impact characterization

Objectives

PROCLIAS will address cross-sectoral impact and investigate the effects of some key climate and climate policy parametric changes. As known from multiple criteria decisions making, game theory as well as economics, any parametric/ systemic impact analysis with heterogeneous and/ or time-dependent domains, requires much more advanced methods than a linear combination of domain specific and local equilibria.

The TG will analyze candidate trade-off methods from socioeconomics, survey climate expert panels in this respect (including GIECC), and policy maker views, to identify the most suitable principles and compare them with computational methods irrespective of specific climate models. This includes stability of local extrema’s, Nash equilibrium, Stackelberg equilibrium, extreme value distributions, extreme risk bounds, etc. Special attention will be given to non-climatic drivers and inclusion of the corresponding models.
Subject to data availability, cross-impact input-output (Leontjief) analysis will also be explored between climate related input variables and a set of socio-economic output variables taken all together, and time-dependent inversion of the input-output relation studied.

Prior cases having benefitted from such analysis: shipping sector impact, mobile network impact (over 50 year of a generation life cycle)

Task Group Leader

Louis-Francois Pau

Task Group Contributors

Louis-Francois Pau, Tatjana Dragicevic Radicevic, Adriana Radosavac, Pavle Brzakovic, Elena Vaculovschi